Xiaomi 2030

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I. Consolidated Income Statement (2025–2030)

This table aggregates the four major segments (EV, Smartphones, IoT & Lifestyle, Internet Services) into Xiaomi’s overall revenue, costs, and profit each fiscal year.

(A) Revenue: Segment-by-Segment and Total

Line Item	30/09/25	29/09/26	28/09/27	27/09/28	26/09/29	LTM 2030
1. EV Segment Revenue	84,000	153,000	280,000	458,000	660,000	900,000
2. Smartphone Segment Revenue	234,000	284,400	346,200	421,600	513,300	625,000
3. IoT & Lifestyle Segment Revenue	150,000	210,000	300,000	380,000	460,000	520,000
4. Internet Services Revenue	46,000	62,500	81,800	101,000	120,500	160,000
5. Total Consolidated Revenue (1+2+3+4)	514,000	709,900	1,008,000	1,360,600	1,753,800	2,205,000
YoY Growth (%)	56%	38%	42%	35%	29%	26%

(B) Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)

Line Item	30/09/25	29/09/26	28/09/27	27/09/28	26/09/29	LTM 2030
6. EV COGS (margin ~20→25%)	67,200	119,340	215,600	348,080	495,000	675,000
7. Smartphone COGS (margin ~14→20%)	201,700	241,600	290,000	347,700	417,000	500,000
8. IoT & Lifestyle COGS (margin ~20→22%)	117,750	164,850	237,000	298,940	361,900	405,600
9. Internet Services COGS (~25% of revenue)	11,700	16,500	20,800	26,200	30,500	40,000
10. Total Consolidated COGS (6+7+8+9)	398,350	542,290	763,400	1,020,920	1,304,400	1,620,600
YoY Growth (%)	–	36%	41%	34%	28%	24%

(C) Gross Profit

Line Item	30/09/25	29/09/26	28/09/27	27/09/28	26/09/29	LTM 2030
11. Gross Profit (5 – 10)	115,650	167,610	244,600	339,680	449,400	584,400
YoY Growth (%)	–	45%	46%	39%	32%	30%
Gross Margin (%)	22.5%	23.6%	24.3%	25.0%	25.6%	26.5%

(D) Operating Expenses (Opex)

Line Item	30/09/25	29/09/26	28/09/27	27/09/28	26/09/29	LTM 2030
13. Selling, General & Admin (SG&A)	30,600	41,400	57,200	75,600	97,800	126,000
14. R&D (across all segments)	30,500	44,000	58,000	78,000	101,000	135,000
15. Other / G&A	5,000	7,500	9,800	12,500	15,000	18,000
16. Total Opex (13+14+15)	66,100	92,900	125,000	166,100	213,800	279,000
YoY Growth (%)	–	41%	35%	33%	29%	31%

(E) Operating Income (EBIT)

Line Item	30/09/25	29/09/26	28/09/27	27/09/28	26/09/29	LTM 2030
17. Operating Income (EBIT, 11 – 16)	49,550	74,710	119,600	173,580	235,600	305,400
YoY Growth (%)	–	51%	60%	45%	36%	30%
EBIT Margin (%)	9.6%	10.5%	11.9%	12.8%	13.4%	13.8%

(F) Net Income

Line Item	30/09/25	29/09/26	28/09/27	27/09/28	26/09/29	LTM 2030
19. Net Interest & Other	(1,500)	(2,300)	(3,000)	(4,000)	(5,000)	(6,000)
20. Pre-Tax Income (17 + 19)	48,050	72,410	116,600	169,580	230,600	299,400
21. Income Tax Expense (~16–17% Rate)	(7,210)	(11,586)	(18,656)	(27,135)	(36,900)	(44,910)
22. Net Income (Consolidated)	40,840	60,824	97,944	142,445	193,700	254,490
YoY Growth (%)	–	49%	61%	46%	36%	31%
Net Margin (%)	7.9%	8.6%	9.7%	10.5%	11.0%	11.5%

II. Segment Detail Tables

Below are sub-tables for each of the four segments, highlighting volumes, ASP, revenue, costs, and margins. Only crucial lines are in bold.

(1) EV Segment (2025–2030)

Metric	30/09/25	29/09/26	28/09/27	27/09/28	26/09/29	LTM 2030
1. Vehicle Sales (units)	350,000	600,000	1,000,000	1,500,000	2,000,000	2,500,000
YoY Growth (%)	–	71%	67%	50%	33%	25%
2. ASP (RMB)	240,000	255,000	280,000	305,000	330,000	360,000
3. Segment Revenue (RMB M)	84,000	153,000	280,000	458,000	660,000	900,000
4. COGS (RMB M)	67,200	119,340	215,600	348,080	495,000	675,000
5. Gross Profit (RMB M)	16,800	33,660	64,400	109,920	165,000	225,000
Gross Margin (%)	20%	22%	23%	24%	25%	25%

(2) Smartphone Segment (2025–2030)

Metric	30/09/25	29/09/26	28/09/27	27/09/28	26/09/29	LTM 2030
1. Annual Units (M)	180	192	205	219	234	250
YoY Growth (%)	7%	7%	7%	7%	7%	7%
2. ASP (RMB)	1,300	1,480	1,690	1,920	2,190	2,500
3. Segment Revenue (RMB M)	234,000	284,400	346,200	421,600	513,300	625,000
4. COGS (RMB M)	201,700	241,600	290,000	347,700	417,000	500,000
5. Gross Profit (RMB M)	32,300	42,800	56,200	73,900	96,300	125,000
Gross Margin (%)	13.8%	15.1%	16.3%	17.5%	18.8%	20.0%

(3) IoT & Lifestyle (2025–2030)

Metric	30/09/25	29/09/26	28/09/27	27/09/28	26/09/29	LTM 2030
1. Segment Revenue (RMB M)	150,000	210,000	300,000	380,000	460,000	520,000
YoY Growth (%)	44%	40%	43%	27%	21%	13%
2. COGS (RMB M, margin ~20→22%)	117,750	164,850	237,000	298,940	361,900	405,600
3. Gross Profit (RMB M)	32,250	45,150	63,000	81,060	98,100	114,400
Gross Margin (%)	21.5%	21.5%	21.0%	21.3%	21.3%	22.0%

(4) Internet Services (2025–2030)

Metric	30/09/25	29/09/26	28/09/27	27/09/28	26/09/29	LTM 2030
1. Segment Revenue (RMB M)	46,000	62,500	81,800	101,000	120,500	160,000
YoY Growth (%)	35%	36%	30%	19%	19%	33%
2. COGS (~25% cost, ~75% margin, RMB M)	11,700	16,500	20,800	26,200	30,500	40,000
3. Gross Profit (RMB M)	34,300	46,000	61,000	74,800	90,000	120,000
Gross Margin (%)	74.5%	73.6%	74.6%	74.0%	74.7%	75.0%

III. Key Observations

1. Revenue Scale

   • Total consolidated revenue surpasses RMB 2.2 trillion by FY30, if the EV ramp (2.5M units), smartphone ASP doubling (~RMB 2,500), IoT broadening (RMB 520B), and internet expansions (RMB 160B) all align.

2. Profit & Margins

   • Gross margin rises from 22.5% to 26.5%.

   • Operating margins climb to ~13.8% by LTM 2030, and net margins ~11–12%.

   • Net income could exceed RMB 254B under these bullish assumptions.

3. Segment-Specific Targets

   • EV hits RMB 900B with 2.5M cars at ~RMB 360k ASP and ~25% margin.

   • Smartphone 2.5M units, ASP ~RMB 2,500, achieving RMB 625B revenue, margin ~20%.

   • IoT & Lifestyle base-case at RMB 520B with a moderate 22% margin.

   • Internet Services ~RMB 160B, propelled by ads, gaming, fintech, subscriptions at ~75% margin.

Overall, these projections showcase Xiaomi’s potential multi-trillion revenue horizon by 2030 if each business line meets ambitious scale and margin goals—though each segment’s execution must be nearly flawless to reach these upper thresholds.